As an observer of the last few weeks, I have to share some thoughts. Four weeks ago, the fact was that Hillary was up by 20+ points, establishing a rather easy bar for her to limbo under. All she had to do was maintain that lead or not lose any more than 5 points to meet the conventional and easy-to-quantify wisdom. Many around mydd in fact did a fair amount of understandable chest thumping over the 20+ point lead, daring Obama to even consider beating Hillary. I was very nervous.
I am an Obama supporter, believing that neither race nor gender have ANYTHING to do with how we should be selecting our next president. We owe nothing to either candidate based on either shallow concept. Both race and gender are mere happenstance...not a reason to infer whom is the best candidate. Anyway, I know (as any honest student of politics and social science would tell you) that in order for Hillary to win, she needs to turn the 20+ point lead in PA into a 20+ win (maybe 15 would do), which in theory will propel her to subsequent 20+ leads and wins in IN, NC, and OR and the rest. That is the only legitimate path remaining for her to the nomination, and frankly, if she meets the threshold above...she'll deserve it and will get my support if she does.
However, things seem to be in flux, to the detriment of this narrative. In the last 3 weeks, Obama has closed the gap AGAIN. By most standards/polls, he is within 10 points or so.
Why?
1) Obama's campaign is smart and agile. He and his team had the wisdom to build and execute a great plan. Key endorsements were gathered and announced, a highly successful bus tour was executed, and his performances on the stump have been excellent.
2) The Clinton campaign has been troubled; not even the most stubborn HRC supporters could deny this unfortunate fact. The Penn disaster finally came to its predictable and sickening end. While that was good news for HRC, it is probably too damn late to make a difference (that fool should have been shown the door weeks and weeks before). BUT, the Bosnia gaffe was truly a problem for her. For good, ill, or indifferent, that oft-repeated and self-aggrandizing yarn reminded many of the sort of things that we didn't like about the Clinton years; namely the not-so-honest (but creative) story-telling.
In concert, these are the reasons why the "bittergate" fiasco was so embraced and met with glee by HRC, her team, and her supporters. It seemed on its face, to be a possible silver bullet, fatally wounding the competition with one brief shot. Unfortunately, this silver bullet, like those before it (using Jeremiah Wright, Rezko, and Power as a means of attack), was a dud.
I respect Hillary, and loved her husband, but this is getting tiring. This is not about gender or race, but about being wise enough to see the forest for the trees. Conservatively, if the balance of this process goes all the way through the to the end, Obama will have approximately 1925 delegates to HRC's 1700. This means that he needs only 33% of the supers to Hill's 67%. That is just not going to happen..look at the list for pity's sake if you don't believe me...and let's not even discuss the notion that SOME of Hillary's SD's WILL defect at the end.
The longer it goes on the more it helps McCain; a man who just earlier this very week declared he'd RATHER face Hillary than Obama (for obvious reasons).
If Hillary was really smart about this, what she'd do is suspend her campaign NOW...or at least right after PA.
Why?
1) She would be viewed as a truly magnanimous candidate and player. She would engratiate herself with the Obama supporters and party elders/leaders who are growing impatient, if not didsdainful with the manner in which her campaign has and is behaving.
2)The numbers aren't going to change appreciably relative to delegates. She would enter the convention with very nearly the SAME number (some Sd's might drop off, but it would be close)! Should Obama implode or something tragic occur, she could enter the convention with her delegates, take advantage of number 1 above, and become the standard-bearer.
3) Most importantly, it will be easier for Obama to focus on McCain with his 40 million-dollar mountain of money. The more $$ he is forced to spend on a protracted battle with HRC, the more money is NOT spent fighting the real enemy...the GOP. Obama could campaign throughout the summer, leaving McCain in the dust.
I fear however..that this won't happen. There seems to be no end to the desperation and slash and burn tactics that Hillary's team is capable of, and all too willing to use. Sure, there is being a "fighter", but there is also being a counter-productive nincompoop... snark ahead:
Every time I see Hill these days I am reminded of "Fatal Attraction" when Glenn Close screams, "I WILL NOT BE IGNORED, DAN!!!!"
Lord, I feel like we are ALL Dan. We, as progressives and the like-minded indies & enlightened GOP, have had our fleeting and passionate moment with Hillary...but it as in the movie, we, like Micheal Douglas, realize that the affair was a terrible mistake and must return to logic and our ideals.
Please, please Obama folks...GOTV and get it within 10...PLEASE!..before she boils our pets!
Guns
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